Forecast accuracy — measured, not claimed
Every hour, Skycastor records its own forecast (and the raw model forecasts it builds on) for 12 cities worldwide, then grades them against independent references when the hour arrives: airport METAR observations plus a quorum of model now-casts. No single source is ever trusted alone.
Dansk: Skycastor maaler sin egen praecision hver time i 12 byer verden over og doemmer prognoserne mod uafhaengige referencer (lufthavnsobservationer + model-kvorum).
Skycastor (blend)
| Hours ahead | Temp. error (MAE) | Rain/dry hit-rate | Graded forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 h | 0.5 °C | 84.6 % | 12276 |
| +3 h | 0.55 °C | 84.6 % | 12252 |
| +6 h | 0.61 °C | 84.3 % | 12216 |
| +12 h | 0.68 °C | 83.8 % | 12144 |
| +24 h | 0.77 °C | 83.2 % | 12000 |
Open-Meteo
| Hours ahead | Temp. error (MAE) | Rain/dry hit-rate | Graded forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 h | 0.65 °C | 86.9 % | 12276 |
| +3 h | 0.72 °C | 87 % | 12252 |
| +6 h | 0.78 °C | 86.4 % | 12216 |
| +12 h | 0.84 °C | 86.4 % | 12144 |
| +24 h | 0.94 °C | 85.7 % | 12000 |
MET Norway (yr)
| Hours ahead | Temp. error (MAE) | Rain/dry hit-rate | Graded forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 h | 0.56 °C | 88.7 % | 12276 |
| +3 h | 0.61 °C | 88.7 % | 12252 |
| +6 h | 0.68 °C | 88.3 % | 12216 |
| +12 h | 0.75 °C | 87.5 % | 12144 |
| +24 h | 0.85 °C | 86.9 % | 12000 |
Verdicts shown: 182664 (current + previous month). 552 forecasts waiting for their verification hour. Truth rules: temperature needs at least two independent references within 2.5 °C of the median; wet/dry is decided by a fresh airport observation alone, otherwise by full model agreement — disagreements are honestly left unscored.